After the critical situation began in the beginning of March, Iceland, as a member of the Schengen Area, locked its borders to all non-Schengen and non-EU countries and had one of the most successful institutional responses to COVID-19. The result was that the country managed to evade total lockdowns, police patrols at night, and lines of cars in funeral processions. After the generalized stress of the lockdown and the later success in flattening the curve, Iceland entered a grey zone of surrealness, where COVID-19 was seen on TV but did not seem to be much a part of everyday life, except the 2-meter distance signs and hand sanitizer all around.

While the world was talking about waging a war against COVID-19 and the rest of Europe had endured severe lockdowns and mobility restrictions, the worldwide media praised Iceland’s reaction to the pandemic. CNN, for example, described Iceland as a place where the coronavirus appeared to never have happened. Still, just like countries where people were “unleashed” this summer after spring lockdowns, Icelanders are fighting the third wave of contagion. What went wrong? What did we fail to learn from the first wave?

1. Risk doesn't come only from abroad, and lockdown alone won't keep us safe

The Icelandic coastline is a natural barrier that has kept Iceland safe from many perils of mainland Europe… but not COVID-19. The beginning of the third wave in Iceland shows us that we, like the rest of Europe, did not learn to restrain the virus in question. Over the summer, the paranoia of gloves and social distancing in all stores vanished, and until a couple of weeks ago, it was quite rare to find people with masks on the street or in public places.

“No tourists = no risk of contamination” seemed to be the generalized mantra throughout the country. Even so, since mid-September, the increase in domestic infections has grown. Contrary to the first wave, a significant number of recent cases have been diagnosed outside of quarantine. The demographics of infection have also shifted - as of October 1st, most isolated citizens were aged 18-29.

2. “It's not going to happen to me”

Entering a bar in Reykjavik this summer, it seemed as if COVID-19 had never happened. Icelanders did not have to recover their mobility and freedom like other countries that had patrolled lockdowns and full city shutdowns. Through May, June, and July, there were more and more announcements of days with no new infections, so the public’s confidence increased, perhaps to dangerous levels.

All notions of space were lost inside bars and nightclubs; walking into any of those places seemed like a time warp back to the summer of 2019 in terms of human contact, proximity, and more. COVID-19 was just a statistic during the Icelandic summer, infections were mild, and clearly “it’s not going to happen to me” appeared to be the belief.

3. “Þetta reddast”

Luckily, the number of deaths from COVID-19 is much lower here than in most countries. Nevertheless, the low mortality rate in Iceland appears to have had an influence on behavior, since most people seem to fear a loss of income more than a diagnosis of COVID-19. However, there are other problems regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the pressure it puts on the health system, where the third wave is taking a worse toll than the first.

There has been a lot of pressure to activate the economy, even if it means loosening restrictions at the border; after all… Þetta reddast. But the low death rate doesn't mean an excess of capacity to assume new waves of crisis, it just means we have not yet been washed away by the crisis. New budget discussions are coming in autumn sessions of Parliament. What will come out on top, the economy or the health care system?

Other problems have also arisen. In domestic life, juggling work, parenthood, school, and coexistence with others has led to increased reports of domestic violence, stress, and the need for support from mental health services. Despite the thankfully low mortality rate, there is much to improve with regards to living with COVID-19.

4. The long term

Icelanders expect the government to be five steps ahead, but as citizens, are we acting and adapting at the same pace? Iceland managed well in the first round of a longer-term fight. After the setbacks of the Oxford vaccine, the scope for a solution in 2021 is narrow; nonetheless, people seem to see 2020 as the problem. It is almost as if we are expecting that this will all be over on January 1, 2021. Are we as a nation ready in case 2021 is not what we are expecting?

What Did Iceland Fail to Learn from COVID-19?